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Not Quite a Sellout?

5/31/2022

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That's what St. Joseph, Missouri's News-Press called what happened at the Missouri legislature this year regarding Grain Belt Express.  The editorial was very clear that what happened should not be called a success story.
But what must be the most difficult pill to swallow is the legislators’ statements that House Bill 2005, which reforms eminent domain law for future transmission projects, represents one of the success stories of the 2020 session.

Lawmakers should be willing to call it what it is. Perhaps not a sellout, but a difficult compromise that comes at the expense of those landowners who are most affected and led this fight.

But did it REALLY reform eminent domain law in a meaningful way for future transmission projects?  Or did it just throw wide the door and roll out the welcome mat for future "fly over" merchant transmission projects?  I guess we'll have to see what those "grateful" landowners think the next time their legislators "not quite" sell them out in favor of an out-of-state company taking property to benefit its own profits.

The editorial says:
You could point to several benefits of Grain Belt, the 780-mile transmission project bringing wind power from Kansas to populations further east.

The customers on the receiving end get plenty of benefits. But who, exactly? Unlike something more tangible like gasoline, it’s hard to see where electricity is directed on the grid, but the fact that Grain Belt will end near Indiana suggests that many of its beneficiaries are there and not here.

Invenergy, the for-profit company building Grain Belt, could benefit nicely when it starts to sell the power.

Several misconceptions here.  There are no customers "further east."  Only wholesale electricity suppliers who have signed contracts with Grain Belt Express can be customers.  The only customers GBE has at the moment are the Missouri municipalities.  No power-buying entity "further east" wants to buy power shipped on GBE.  There are no takers.  And since this is a market-based merchant transmission project, lack of voluntary customers demonstrates that there is no need for GBE.  Without customers to buy power shipped on the line GBE fails because it has no revenue stream to pay back any borrowed funds for construction.  There are no beneficiaries for GBE right now, except for a couple of Missouri municipalities who have signed up to use around 5% of the project's capacity.

And let's talk about capacity... that's the only thing GBE is selling.  It's selling room on its transmission line, it's not selling power.  Any power that may flow over GBE must be purchased separately from another entity than GBE.  GBE is not selling power!

Although, News-Press maybe accidentally gets pretty close to the truth, "Invenergy could benefit nicely when it starts selling power".  That's right... Invenergy could sell power from its own generators, and only its own generators, and ship it "further east" on GBE, making the transmission line an exclusive, private driveway for only Invenergy to use.  Would the Missouri PSC and the Missouri legislature be okay granting eminent domain for that?  It wouldn't be a public use.  It would be a private use.

I dunno... maybe they'll pull their head out of their vanilla panna cotta and begin pondering?

At any rate... News-Press needs to quit sounding so fatalistic.  This is not the end of opposition to GBE, it's just the beginning of Missouri landowners finding out who their elected officials really are.
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Missouri Landowner Not On Board With Legislation

5/22/2022

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Here's all you need to know about the recent Missouri legislation, courtesy of Ted Rogers, a landowner affected by Grain Belt Express.
This spring, the legislature passed a bill that clamps down on the use of eminent domain for transmission lines. The legislation, now headed to the governor’s desk, requires a company or an investor-owned utility to pay 150% of market value for an easement on agricultural property. It also requires a project to deliver a proportional amount of power to Missouri so that it doesn’t just use rural counties as an energy superhighway on the way to bigger cities.
But House Bill 2005 contained the following words: “These provisions will not apply to applications filed prior to Aug. 28, 2022.”
That means Grain Belt, granted regulatory approval in 2019, is grandfathered in.
“We thank our many supporters for their tireless efforts in ensuring that this legislation recognized the legal rights of Grain Belt Express as a previously approved project that will continue forward toward full construction,” said Nicole Luckey, senior vice president of regulatory affairs for Invenergy, in a statement. “Missouri lawmakers brought stakeholders together around this important legislative compromise, which will benefit Missouri families, farmers, workers and businesses for decades to come.”


That’s not how Rogers sees it.
“I have a hard time with the Legislature right now,” he said.
Despite Invenergy's cheerful chirping, however, GBE still has a number of insurmountable hurdles in its path, not the least of which is that it does not have enough customers to finance the building of the project.

Perhaps it's not coming after all...
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FERC Chairman Suggests You Adjust to "New Normal" Where Blackouts are Common

5/22/2022

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The federal grid reliability watchdog issued a dire report last week that warned of a potentially severe electric generation shortage this summer.  That is, we may not have enough electricity to serve everyone if there are any weather extremes, fuel shortages, or equipment failure.  Mainly, these problems are likely in the Midwest, Texas, and the west (California).

It's no coincidence that these are the places where a lot of renewable energy generators (wind and solar) have been built in recent years.  The cause of that is political goals, availability of "cheap" land, and federal tax incentive windfalls for the companies who construct them. 

This coming shortage of electricity should come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog.  I've been talking about it for years as government subsidies for renewable generators effectively price baseload generators, that can run when called because they can simply add fuel and generate when the need arises, out of the market.  Renewables are intermittent resources, they only run when mother nature supplies their fuel.  She's a fickle mistress.
The problem spilled over into a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission monthly meeting last week when staff presented a report on summer grid performance.  At the new, politicized FERC disagreements cropped up.  Commission Chairman Glick blamed the problem on extreme weather caused by climate change and suggested that we all need to adjust to "the new normal."
The growing threat of power outages fueled by extreme weather calls for new approaches to grid oversight, the head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said yesterday, adding that utilities and grid operators should “think differently.”
In the face of droughts and heat waves worsened by climate change, the commission must advance new policies to modernize power markets, build more transmission lines and safeguard energy infrastructure, said FERC Chair Richard Glick. Regulators, energy providers and others also need to adjust to the “new normal” as extreme weather events become more common, according to Glick.
“The old way doesn’t work anymore. We need to figure out a new approach, a much more reliable approach, and that’s what we’re trying to do here at FERC,” he said.

His "new normal" includes fewer baseload generators and more intermittent renewables.  Instead of recognizing the real problem, he chooses to blame the weather for creating shortages.  The weather hasn't been a problem, until just recently, so his approach makes no sense at all.  Relying on transmission to solve the problem is no solution at all.  The report pointed to one shortage being caused by a transmission line that has been out of service for months due to tornado damage.  Building more transmission in tornado alley is hardly a solution to this problem, unless it is built underground, perhaps on existing highway or railroad rights of way.  However, FERC has chosen to ignore new technology that can accomplish this, complaining that it's "too expensive."  How expensive will that one transmission outage be when it causes blackouts?  It would have been cheaper to bury it in the first place so that this outage never occurred.  The report also highlighted above-ground transmission causing wildfires in the west, as well as transmission lines that were blocked by wildfires and couldn't deliver energy.  More transmission is not the solution.

Chairman Glick got push back from a couple of other Commissioners, who made a lot more sense.
While Glick, a Democrat, said the FERC report underscored the need for more transmission lines and changes in U.S. power markets, Republican commissioners highlighted how retiring fossil fuel power plants may be exacerbating reliability challenges.

The Midwestern grid region, for example, is at a “high risk” of power shortfalls due to a decline in generation capacity this year relative to last year. Power shortfalls could occur during extreme temperatures, during periods of low wind power or in the event of generation outages in the coming months, FERC staff said in a presentation on the findings.

The staff analysis showcased the need for more natural gas infrastructure to support generators, and for regulators to address state energy policies that are “reliability-impairing,” said Republican Commissioner James Danly. He also questioned whether more investments in the electric transmission system would solve the reliability challenges.

“There is, in the minds of some, an idea that as long as we get the transmission issue correct, everything else will eventually solve itself. I am simply a skeptic,” Danly said.

Me too, Commissioner!  It is simply unrealistic to believe that we can power our country reliably with intermittent renewables in far off places that would depend on above-ground transmission lines hundreds or thousands of miles long that would deliver the power to urban areas.  It's simply fantasy... an equation that only works on paper.

But it was Commissioner Christie who succinctly nailed the problem with today's double time march toward zero carbon.
“There is clear, objective, conclusive data indicating that the pace of our grid transformation is out of sync with the underlying realities and physics of our system,” Christie said.
That's it, exactly.  The forced closure of baseload plants is ignoring the fact that we don't have the right technology to replace them.

Many years ago, I opined that we shouldn't allow a bunch of environmentalist policy wonks to plan our electricity supply because they did not have the working knowledge to do so, simply a desire to meet their impossible goals.  Keeping the lights on and keeping power affordable is simply not one of them.

Plunging headlong into a carbon-free energy future without the resources to support it is simply foolish!
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Heads We Win; Tails You Lose

5/18/2022

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FERC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Transmission Planning, officially known as  Building for the Future Through Electric Regional Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation and Generator Interconnection, contains some pretty questionable proposals.  But the one that is making the most people scratch their heads is the proposal that new "long-term" transmission plan projects be prohibited from asking for and receiving FERC's current CWIP in ratebase incentive.  Instead, these new projects planned to be used and useful 20 years in the future must instead use AFUDC.  Sounds like complete gibberish, doesn't it?  Pull up a chair... you're going to understand this when we're done.

FERC proclaims that using AFUDC will "protect" ratepayers.  But, is that really true?  No, it's not.  Ratepayers will end up paying more for these transmission projects, even when they are subsequently cancelled and never provide any service whatsoever.

When a utility builds new infrastructure, it must front up the full cost of constructing the project before it goes into service.  There are two different rate methods to account for the use of this money to build things that end up being useful for the consumer.

CWIP, which stands for Construction Work in Progress, is a method whereby a utility collects its capital construction costs for a new project into a special account, which is then added to the ratebase.  The utility earns its awarded return on the amount in ratebase each year, and in the case of CWIP in ratebase, it earns a return on the money it has invested in the project before the project goes into service.  The benefits of this is that it creates cash flow for the utility to pay interest on the money it borrows for the project.  Having that cash flow also bolsters the utility's credit rating and lowers the utility's cost of capital, allowing it to borrow at reduced rates.  Lower interest costs to the utility flow through to customers, who always end up paying the utility's borrowing costs.  In addition, CWIP in ratebase has the benefit of increasing the rates due to the new addition gradually, in real time, instead of all at once when the new infrastructure goes into service.  The consumer will see their bill go up gradually, and will notice these increases over time and may plan accordingly.

AFUDC, which stands for Allowance of Funds Used During Construction, is a method whereby the utility still collects its construction costs into a special account, but it is not added to the ratebase until the project goes in service.  The project costs keep building in this account, plus interest, and the utility collects nothing until the project goes in service.  There is no cash flow for the utility during planning and construction, therefore it must find money elsewhere to pay interest on the money it has borrowed.  This can affect the financial health of the utility with a large AFUDC burden, and increase its cost of borrowing, which is flowed through to customers.  Customers will pay more to finance a project using AFUDC.  When a project using AFUDC goes into service, the customer will see a huge spike in their rates to pay for the total cost of the project, plus all the accumulated interest.  The consumer will be completely flummoxed (and ticked off) about this huge spike it his electric bill.  He won't see it coming and has no opportunity to plan his usage accordingly.

But there can be advantages to AFUDC, if a proposed project is cancelled before it is put into service because the utility will have not collected any of its costs from ratepayers before then.  In that instance, the utility absorbs the loss and ratepayers are off the hook.

HOWEVER (because here's where the real rub comes in) FERC has also routinely granted an abandonment incentive to all regionally planned projects, like the future long-term planning projects.  The thinking is that the utility is being "forced" to attempt to construct the project by regional planners and therefore has no fault if the planner subsequently cancels the project after the utility has spent money on it.  FERC wants to make these utilities whole by giving them back all the money they have spent, plus interest, if the project is cancelled through no fault of the utility.  Ratepayers are the bank here and are required to shoulder all the risk and cost of planned projects that end up being cancelled before being completed. 

So, it wouldn't matter if the project used CWIP in ratebase or AFUDC to account for its costs if the project was subsequently abandoned.  Ratepayers would still be on the hook to cover the costs, and the AFUDC project would end up costing them more.

AFUDC does not protect consumers as long as FERC continues to use its abandonment incentive to place all risk for project abandonment on consumers.  Consumers have asked FERC several times to take a deep dive into its abandonment incentive to collect the data necessary to evaluate the wisdom of continuing it.  How many regionally planned projects with this incentive have been abandoned?  How much have ratepayers paid for projects that have never become used and useful to them?  (Hint:  It's easily more than a billion dollars.)  How can FERC take action to ameliorate this burden on consumers?  Can it place some burden on the utilities where abandoned project costs are shared between utilities and consumers?  Should it place stricter requirements on regional planners to engage in more due diligence when planning projects, such as more effort to evaluate the likeliness that the project will not be delayed or denied important permits because of opposition in affected communities?  What surety can FERC impose on regional planners to discourage the wasting of ratepayer funds on pipe dream projects that have no realistic expectation to ever be built?  You know, that sort of sounds like these long-term planning projects of which FERC is so enamored.

As Commissioner Christie said in his concurrence:

Based on my experience as a state regulator with IRPs and computer models purporting to predict the future two or more decades down the road, I regard 20-year projections of this sort as, at best, occasionally interesting, but they certainly provide no basis whatsoever for saddling consumers with the costs of a billion-dollar transmission line.
But yet he thinks AFUDC will fix everything.
AFUDC is booked during the pre-service phases, but cannot be recovered from customers until the project is completed and actually serving customers, i.e., “used and useful.”  The NOPR proposal is simply in keeping with traditional good utility ratemaking principles.  Booking these costs as AFUDC also recognizes the reality that just because an LTRT project is selected for a regional plan, it still has to obtain all state siting, certificate of public convenience and necessity  and other, including environmental, approvals, and survive what may be the subsequent litigation, before it is actually built.
But it can still collect its costs from customers using FERC's abandonment incentive.  It's like locking the barn door after the horse escapes!

I'm not fooled by this, and you shouldn't be either.  AFUDC only works if the abandonment incentive is... well... abandoned, and it doesn't look like FERC has any intention of doing so.

And here's the second big fool for consumers... using AFUDC actually hides the huge electric rate increases consumers will face due to the euphemistic "changes in the resource mix" (read more wind and solar and less coal, gas and nukes) until it's way too late to do something about it.  If the costs of the trillions of dollars of new transmission the Commission is trying to encourage with this action don't find their way into your bill until they have either been built or abandoned, you will have no chance to adjust your power consumption behavior, or even to speak out, before the damage is done and your power bill ends up doubling (or more).  The money will have already been spent, and consumers are already on the hook.

If FERC gets away with this... heads utilities win, tails you lose.
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Comment on DOE's Transmission Facilitation Program

5/17/2022

1 Comment

 
Sharpen your pencils, transmission warriors!  The DOE is in the process of making good on the part of the "Bipartisan Energy Bill" that allows the federal government to prop up failed and unneeded transmission projects with your tax dollars.  It's quick and easy to drop them an electronic comment via the internet.  You can submit your comment here by clicking on the blue "comment" button at the top left of the notice and filling out the form that pops up.  It's really just that simple!  You'll be glad you did when an unneeded transmission line without any customers is planned to cross your property, and the federal government signs up to be a "customer" in order to make the project "needed" so that it may be financed and built.

As I wrote about extensively last year, greedy merchant transmission developers (hello, Clean Line) whose projects failed because they could not find any customers to sign up for service have set their bought and paid for Congress critters in motion to create fake "customers" for their unneeded projects so that they can be "needed", financed and built.

The DOE is seeking comment on how to implement this ridiculous, new "program" set in motion by the passing of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.  They have written a rather short (in regulatory terms) plan on how they are going to carry it out.
The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA or the Act) directs the Secretary of Energy (Secretary) to establish a program, to be known as the “Transmission Facilitation Program” or “TFP,” under which the Secretary shall facilitate the construction of electric power transmission lines and related facilities. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE or Department) Grid Deployment Office is issuing this NOI to notify interested parties of its intent to implement the TFP and to describe the proposed approach for participation by eligible entities in the TFP. The Department also seeks input from all stakeholders through this RFI regarding the application process, criteria for qualification, and selection of eligible projects to participate in the TFP.
Comments are due June 13.
What should you say?  There are certain questions asked in this RFI that you may want to address, such as:
(19) The IIJA calls on DOE to seek to enter into capacity contracts that will encourage other entities to enter into contracts for the transmission capacity of the eligible projects. On what basis should DOE assess whether a capacity contract with an applicant will encourage other entities to enter contracts for transmission capacity?
This has to be my personal favorite question, based on the stupidity of the presumption alone.  If the government buys something with your tax dollars, will you then be inspired to buy the same thing?  Or maybe buy the thing from the government, who isn't really using it?
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Maybe Tom Sawyer persuaded a bunch of little boys to white wash Aunt Polly's fence, but if electric companies want to purchase capacity on new merchant transmission projects, it's a business proposition based on need and cost, not an emotional moment where electric companies just want to keep up with the federal government's activities.  If there was a need for the service, the electric companies would purchase it from the transmission developer directly.  When they don't, it means the merchant transmission project isn't needed.  DOE is going to be stuck with that unneeded transmission capacity that it can't use because it doesn't serve any electric customers forever (or 40 years, as written in the law).  How do you think the government can persuade others to buy something they don't need just because the government bought it first?  This concept is going to end in complete failure... just a complete give away of our tax dollars to speculative merchant transmission developers.

Here's another you may like:
12) Recognizing that transmission projects are located based on the availability of generation, and ultimately customers to buy that generation, and have limited long term direct employment impacts:

  • What equity, energy and environmental justice concerns or priorities are most relevant for the TFP? How can these concerns or priorities be addressed in TFP implementation?
And here's something that's not really a question, but feel free to comment on it anyhow.
DOE participation is to help provide certainty to developers, operators, and marketers that customer revenue will be sufficient to justify the construction of a transmission line that meets current and future needs. Applications for capacity contracts are not required to account for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) environmental impact review, because DOE's entry into a capacity contract does not independently trigger NEPA review.
Yup, they really wrote that into the law, even though they have no authority to circumvent the National Environmental Policy Act, which triggers a review every time an action of the federal government affects our environment.  Since this "program" is being carried out for the purpose of "facilitating" (financially propping up) transmission projects that would otherwise not be built, DOE IS affecting the environment with its decisions to shower tax dollars on unneeded merchant transmission projects.  Expect this to be challenged in court, but nothing says you can't get your licks in now and be right from the start.

And here's another topic that DOE pretty much ignores.  Merchant transmission is market based.  That is, there must be a market need for it.  Customers must be willing to pay to use it.  Merchant transmission has no captive customers who must pay for the project as part of their electric bill.  Merchant transmission is a completely optional, money-making endeavor and never necessary for you to get economic, reliable electric service.  Those kinds of projects are ordered by grid planners and recovered involuntarily as part of your bill.  Merchant Transmission is lightly regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission because it does not have involuntary customers who must be protected.  FERC may grant what's known as "Negotiated Rate Authority", which allows the merchant transmission developer to advertise its service and negotiate rate contracts with voluntary customers.  FERC regulates whether this process is fair to all customers.  But if the DOE is required to purchase capacity on merchant transmission projects, then it no longer qualifies as merchant transmission because DOE is a captive customer who must be protected with regulated cost of service rates.  When a merchant with Negotiated Rate Authority advertises and sells available capacity, there are strict guidelines the merchant must follow.  But what about DOE?  Who's going to be regulating them to make sure their sale of transmission capacity to all those future fence painters, who just gotta have what the government already bought, is fair?  Is one branch of the government going to be regulating the other?  DOE and FERC need to address how this will be handled, even though the merchant transmission lobbyists who wrote the law did not address it (probably because... well... stupid... they don't know how rates work).

And for those readers who successfully battled the Plains and Eastern Clean Line at great expense of time and money, perhaps you'd like to share a little wisdom you gained from the experience of DOE "participating" in that project for the express purpose of using federal eminent domain when Arkansas said "no"?  In that instance, DOE required Clean Line to have capacity contract customers before building, and Clean Line never could find any, which was the ultimate reason DOE cancelled its "participation agreement."  With that knowledge, how could DOE do better this time around in order to avoid years of misery?

The commenting form is quick and easy.  Please use it.  Time is short.  Sometimes the best defense is a good offense.  And DOE's new program is about as offensive as it gets.  Don't wait to act until a transmission road to nowhere that doesn't actually deliver electricity anywhere because there are no real customers taking service is sited outside your front door.
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Transource Loses Appeal

5/5/2022

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The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania has denied Transource's appeal of the Pennsylvania Utility Commission's denial of its siting application.
Because we conclude that the Commission’s decision denying the Siting Applications and rescinding Transource’s provisional CPC was in accordance with Pennsylvania law, including Sections 1501 and 2805(a) of the Code, and Section 57.76(a) of the Regulations, and is supported by substantial, credited evidence
of
record, we affirm.
In plain language, this means that Transource loses and the PUC's rejection of the Transource project stands.  Congratulations, folks!

However, Transource's suit in the United States District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania is still alive, but it is now more unlikely than ever that Transource will prevail.  Transource's argument there is that PJM determines when transmission lines are needed and the state's only role is to decide where to put it.  That argument has never made sense, and makes even less sense now.  Here's why:
As for Transource’s arguments that PJM’s determination of need would be binding due to this matter involving issues of interstate regional transmission subject to FERC oversight,the ALJ held that the Commission was obligated to make an independent determination based on Pennsylvania law. (Id.at 82, 86, 99-102.)The ALJ further observed that while FERC has exclusive jurisdiction over the interstate transmission of electric energy and wholesale electric process, that jurisdiction was limited to matters that are not subject to state regulation. (Id.at 85 (citing Section 824(a) of the Federal Power Act, 16 U.S.C. § 824(a)).) According to the ALJ, FERC recognized this limitation by stating that there is “longstanding state authority over certain matters that are relevant to transmission planning and expansion, such as matters relevant to siting, permitting, and construction” and that the FERC was in noway invoking “an exercise of authority over those specific substantive matters traditionally reserved to the states . . . .”(Id.(quoting Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation by Transmission Owning & Operating Pub.Utils., 76 Fed. Reg. ¶¶49,842, 49,861 (Aug. 11, 2011) (FERC Order No. 1000)).) This means, according to the ALJ, that FERC Order No. 1000 was “not intended to dictate substantive outcomes” or to allow FERC to “determine what needs to be built, where it needs to be built, and who needs to build it.” (Id.at 85 n.13 (quoting S.C. Pub. Serv. Auth. v. Fed. Energy Reg. Comm’n, 762 F.3d 41, 57-58 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (internal quotation marks and citation omitted)).)
The PUC's decision was in accord with state law.  PJM has no authority when it comes to siting and permitting.  End of story.  If Transource was smart, it would withdraw the federal petition and run as fast as it could go back to Ohio.  But it probably won't.
What an astonishing waste of hundreds of millions of dollars that electric customers will be paying back (plus interest) in their monthly electric bills for years to come.

Here's something interesting from the Court's Opinion:

As for the resolution of congestion in the APSRI, it does not appear that we have ever held that congestion, which is an economic consideration, is sufficient on its own to support need or necessity under Pennsylvania law.
This "congestion relief" project was doomed from the start.  Relieving congestion is not "need" in the same realm as reliability concerns.  PJM should think long and hard before trying this again.  PJM should take the advice of its Market Monitor and revise its market efficiency project process to produce fair and accurate results that can withstand the test of time.  The Court said
It was not just OCA’s witness who criticized PJM’s cost-benefit analysis, but PJM’s own Independent Market Monitor who suggested that its market efficiency process, which includes the cost-benefit analysis, be reevaluated and that the actual costs and benefits of a project should be considered and not ignored in determining whether a market efficiency project is needed.
The "need" for this project began to evaporate before it was even ordered.  Congestion is an ever-shifting economic concept that cannot be used as the basis for a transmission project that will take years to approve, permit, and construct.

Bravo to the PA Office of the Consumer Advocate for all its hard work to protect Pennsylvania consumers and for supplying the evidence that demonstrated how flawed PJM's market efficiency process actually was.

Many concerned citizens felt that PJM was lying about the project and its cost benefit analysis.  In the end, the truth was revealed.  How could anyone ever trust PJM's magic math findings that new transmission is needed ever again?
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Marketing to Mayberry 2022

5/4/2022

4 Comments

 
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It's no secret that the politicians currently in power and their deep pocketed owners are bellying up to the bar for a new transmission feeding frenzy.  But there's one thing standing in their way.  Y-O-U!  Despite a long string of failed transmission projects, such as PATH, MAPP, MCRP, RICL, WindCatcher, Project Verde, NECEC, Transource IEC, Plains & Eastern, Swepco Kings River, Western Carolinas Modernization Project, BPA I-5 Corridor, Northern Pass and many more I'm too busy to look up right now, these people think building a whole bunch more transmission is going to be a snap.

NOT!

They seem to think maybe they need a new approach because what they've been doing is not working (see list above).  People are still opposing new transmission rights of way across their properties, and these people are winning.  They discussed their new approach at a recent Advanced Energy Economy webinar this week. Here it is, courtesy of RTO Insider:
But building transmission, she said, “takes patient money” and “a deep engagement with many, many regulatory bodies” and stakeholders.
“The very big reality is, whether we’re doing a 100-mile [transmission] line or a 500-mile [transmission] line, pretty much anyone can stop it. You can have local jurisdiction, county jurisdiction, state jurisdiction. And you don’t typically have condemnation rights.”
Overcoming landowner opposition “takes a lot of engagement. It takes a lot of humility. You’ve got to talk to people from where they’re at. You can’t come in political. You can’t come in with preconceived ideas. You can’t come in even with the implicit idea that this is essential for the greater good. You have to come in, when you’re talking with landowners, profoundly respectful, that you may be dealing with heritage ranches that have been in families for over a century. And you need to be willing to sit down, listen, have hard conversations [and] follow up again.
“And then you have to work with their concerns. … They can say, ‘You know, I am protective of this particular view. Can you work on the routing around this precious part of the land for me?’ And so I think that that’s really the key to engagement.”
Webster said Pattern takes a broad view of its “host community.”
“You’re a host community if you’re hosting an actual facility with turbines or panels. You’re a host community if you’re hosting a substation, or a major piece of transmission infrastructure. But to us, you’re also a host community if you’re supporting the public good by allowing your transmission line to pass through your county or your property. And so we created standardized community benefits packages based on just mileage that [is] consistent across our entire footprint.”

Oh, humility.  Who do you think you're fooling, Pattern?  You used eminent domain to threaten landowners in New Mexico and you got that authority from the state's industry-funded "Renewable Energy Transmission Authority."  Pattern bought eminent domain authority.  Are you now suggesting that paying off a local government to look the other way while you condemn and acquire rights of way across privately owned land is "humility"?

And let's think about those "preconceived ideas" that are supposed to be left at the door, like "greater good" and politics.  They're not abandoning that nonsense, they just think landowners are too stupid to understand it.  It's not an understanding or education problem.  Landowners are far from stupid.  This is nothing more than 2022's version of Marketing to Mayberry, where failed transmission developer Clean Line Energy Partners hosted a conference that supposed developers needed to dumb down their spiel so hillbillies and hicks in the sticks would go for it.  That failed miserably.  Clean Line Energy Partners no longer exists.

Get real -- there's no respect when transmission developers are "negotiating" with landowners while holding the eminent domain card.  That's coercion.  The transmission developer is going to build the cheapest project it can and your view and your use of your own land doesn't matter.

Transmission is poised to fail again because the developers and the politicians STILL refuse to acknowledge the answer that's right in front of them.  Don't cause impacts.  Don't burden people's land.  If you don't do these things, landowners and local communities simply don't care.... build whatever you want!  There's a network of highways and rail that already connect our country, and new technology that allows HVDC to be buried in a narrow trench on these existing rights of way is readily available to those who want to use it.  Landowners know this, therefore they will NOT allow the continued destruction of rural places in the name of "clean energy" for parasitic places far, far away.

Real respect is burying your projects on existing rights of way and causing no impacts at all on "host communities."

Marketing to Mayberry failed before, and it will fail again.
4 Comments

Delusion vs. Reality

5/2/2022

2 Comments

 
There was much giddiness in California on Saturday as, for the first time ever, the state was running on 100% renewable electricity!  But Californians barely had time to pop the champagne and pour a glass because 15 minutes later the 100% renewable electricity came to an end when supply could not keep up with demand.

Even Californians don't want their electricity to only work for 15 minutes on a random Saturday afternoon, when solar generation is at its peak, so what was there to celebrate?  The random occurrence is NOT an indicator that California's 100% renewable energy goal has (or ever will be) achieved.  It's nothing but a delusional news nugget because renewable generators cannot be counted on to meet capacity at any one point in time.  When they do, it's random, not planned.  But what about batteries, you ask?  Not mature enough to supply reliable power for long periods of time.  But what about transmission lines that import renewables from other states?  How seriously self-absorbed can you be?  No, people in other states do not want to live with the impacts of renewable generators and transmission lines so that California can meet its impossible goals.  That's never going to happen.  Besides, those folks are heading at breakneck speed towards their own generation shortage.  There won't be anything to share.

Are we being pushed into a renewable energy delusion that is going to end in electricity being a "sometime" luxury?  The more renewables the government subsidizes, the more reliable baseload power is economically forced out of market.  The people in charge refuse to recognize this reality and keep driving their renewable train down the track towards disaster.
Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) warned last week that is unlikely to have enough capacity to get the Midwest through the summer months without emergency declarations and rolling blackouts.  Similar to weather alerts, that's a warning, not a watch.  It's going to happen.

Over the past decade, the Midwest has been covered with industrial wind installations, and now industrial solar installations are getting into the game.  As these "low-cost" subsidized power sources enter the market, older fossil fuel generators cannot compete and they are closing in record numbers.  But what happens when vast percentages of the power supply are unreliable, intermittent renewables?
The RTO said all summer months will require emergency resources to meet peak load conditions. Using a probable peak load forecast, MISO said it has 116 GW of firm resources to cover a 116-GW peak in June, an insufficient 119 GW to tackle a 124-GW peak in July and another 119 GW that will be no match for August’s 121-GW peak forecast.

The RTO said it could be in even worse shape if it encounters higher-than-normal temperatures coupled with a high level of generation outages. The grid operator said it’s possible it will find itself depleting all emergency resources and still coming up a few gigawatts short over all three months. In a worst-case scenario, MISO could have a little less than 114 GW in firm capacity and a daunting 131-GW demand during the July peak. In that case, it would be about 5 GW short after all firm and emergency resources are factored in.

And what happens when there's not enough supply?
MISO last week warned that even a normal amount of demand and generation outages will likely send it into emergency procedures this summer.
The RTO also didn’t rule out summertime load shedding during combinations of high demand and high generation outages.

"Load shedding" is just engineer talk for rolling blackouts, where power is shut off to certain areas for a period of time, and when that power is restored, the blackout rolls into a different area where power is shut off for a similar period.  The rolling blackouts continue until sufficient power is restored to meet demand.  "Generation outage" means electric generators fail to operate, whether they are broken or out of fuel.  When it's really hot, land based wind is likely to die down.  This causes the turbines to stop generating.  They often fail when they're needed most... on a hot summer afternoon.
The grid operator said it will probably rely on a combination of emergency resources and non-firm energy imports from neighbors to maintain system reliability in June, July and August.
Well, aren't you a little California there, relying on imports from neighboring regions to keep your lights on because the generation you have in your own region is unreliable and insufficient to meet your expected load?  But what if PJM also experiences summer capacity shortages, as it also has experienced a run on subsidized industrial solar installations that is causing its own baseload generators to retire.  That's when the power gets shut off on a really hot day (or night, when solar isn't producing anything).  The generation shortages are spreading as fast as renewables.... and it's no coincidence.

At what point are the politically-driven policy wonks going to wake up and realize we're not at the point yet where we can be reliably powered by wind and solar, and not likely to get there by spending all our energy dollars on more wind and solar and transmission lines for import/export between regions?  It's an equation that only works on paper.

More misery to come.  Stock up on candles and hand fans.
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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