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Never Let A Good Crisis Go To Waste

6/13/2020

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Industrial "renewable" energy builders, transmission companies, and their big, green NGO sycophants aren't about to let the Corona Crisis go to waste.  They've come up with a new "plan" to "rewire the U.S. for economic recovery."  That's right, we need to build new energy generation and transmission in order to recover from the Corona Crisis.  Only putting money in their pockets will get us on the road to recovery!

Smells like greed to me.

$1.7 trillion in "investment" could  reduce U.S. GHG by  27%.  Just 27%.  And guess who gets to pay for it all?  You do!

Seems like these greedmeisters are having a hard time building this stuff because the people not only don't want to pay for it, they don't want it on or near their property, either.  Therefore, in order to force this amazing Corona Crisis recovery, they've come up with a "plan" to change federal laws to force it on us.  Never let a good crisis go to waste!
Today’s grid operator and state regulatory approaches to transmission planning and generation interconnection are not up to the task of delivering a low-carbon grid at speed and scale.
Therefore, let's do away with state siting and permitting authority and allow FERC to do it for everyone.  After all, look how swell that's worked out for gas pipelines...
While 544 GW of renewable generation lies in wait to interconnect to high-voltage transmission systems – nearly half of the capacity needed to meet a 90 percent clean energy standard – these projects face unreasonably high barriers due to conventional interconnection rules. Rather than investing in transmission planning that would more efficiently serve society’s economic and policy goals, today’s rules typically require every new generation resource to separately pay grid upgrade costs to interconnect their power plant the system, when there would be far greater societal benefit to view transmission planning and upgrades with a more holistic regional perspective. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) should exercise its authority and expand its capacity to require regional transmission expansion and simplified interconnection rules that support the realities of society’s policy goals and a 90 percent by 2035 clean energy standard.
What's wrong with generation owners paying their cost to connect their for-profit enterprises to the existing electric highway system?  It's not like everyone pays for a driveway to some isolated commercial farm operation in order to give the owner a free way to get his products to market.  Renewable energy is no different... it should pay its own way to market.  That's why these rules exist in the first place.  If you site generation near transmission, your costs may be less, but you'd need to pay for any upgrades to the system caused by your commercial generation enterprise.  If you want to make money selling electric generation, you need to pay your own way to get it there.  But these folks want to build new, highly profitable generation way out in the middle of nowhere, and that's pretty expensive.  It makes the cost of their generation more expensive than others, and it cuts into their profits.  Instead, they want YOU to pay for their interconnection so they can make more money on the generation they build.
Transmission networks can be planned in advance to accommodate a sensible mix of very low-cost renewable resources, creating net benefits for customers, and Congress should reform FERC’s electric transmission authority to support the changing electricity system in a cost-effective manner. To begin, cost-allocation should be driven by analysis of the benefits and balanced by a consideration of the negative factors beyond direct cost (e.g., land-use impact, landscape degradation, habitat disruption). Congress could give FERC a clearer mandate to enforce and expand Order 1000 (FERC’s regional transmission planning order), by requiring timely plans, accounting for public policy in planning, and allocating regional costs to beneficiaries where regions fall short.
This is a whole bunch of regal words for giving FERC transmission siting and permitting authority and taking it away from states.  And that talk of benefits?  What benefits? 
Benefits should include quantifiable environmental, resilience, and public policy benefits, in addition to direct economic benefits. The basic idea is to codify the lax suggestions of FERC Order 1000. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) Multi-Value Projects methodology is a model to consider building upon.
No, it's not.  MISO's method tosses a bunch of junk in the "benefits" mix in order to pretend that "environmental benefits" save people money.  They don't.  They cost people money because they require the building of a bunch of unneeded, costly infrastructure that people pay for.  These "benefits" are not quantifiable.  They're not real.  They force everyone in the region to pay for the "environmental" laws of individual states.  The benefits are not distributed equally, but the costs sure are.

Their idea is to build a whole bunch of new transmission at your expense so that industrial renewable companies can build new generators in places where it's not currently economic to build.
...adopting a more comprehensive, proactive regional planning approach in the rest of the country could reduce interconnection queue waiting times and improve the risk for developers...
There ya go... reduce risk (and cost) for renewable generation developers by shifting risk and cost to captive electric ratepayers.
Congress could also push FERC to act on cost-allocation for new multi-state transmission lines. Though these lines do not feature prominently in the 2035 Report, their benefits are clear from other modeling exercises. For example, FERC should encourage high voltage inter-regional transmission to access least-cost (and clean) resources, by requiring regional Order 1000 Planning Authorities to develop compatible models (incorporating state energy resource plans) and pursue interregional transmission where benefits exceed costs. Alternatively, Congress could vest DOE with authority to plan large interregional lines, reducing complexity of coordinating planning between regions. A more holistic cost benefit analysis of this nature can also help address the most common reason many important transmission lines have failed: disagreements between states over how to fairly allocate costs. For multistate lines, FERC could require states denying a regionally beneficial line to demonstrate certain criteria are met to justify denial, similar to the rate design structure used in the Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act.
In other words, let's force states to use imported energy on new transmission lines and make it impossible for them to deny new projects.  Why is that?  Because states are developing local renewables that keep energy dollars working in their own state and create local economic development.  Should renewable generation and transmission developers be able to force a state to buy their product using the force of the federal government?

These shysters also want Congress to create a federal clean energy standard.  Currently, states set their own clean energy policy, and it works just fine.  It just doesn't allow the greedy developers to force states to buy their products.

So, with all that in mind, here's how these guys want to reform energy policy:
U.S. Congress Affirm FERC’s authority for transmission cost allocation and planning for public policy impacts to the grid, including regions outside of ISOs/RTOs. Give particular attention to the federal clean energy standard, or in its absence state and utility clean electricity goals. Make clear the intention to reduce interconnection queue times and require beneficiary customers to pay their fair share.

U.S. Congress
Provide states with matching funds to pay for interstate transmission lines with demonstrable reliability, cost, and renewable integration benefits. Consider vesting DOE with authority to plan for and site interregional transmission lines to streamline development of the nation’s most crucial and beneficial long-distance transmission projects.

FERC
Exercise authority to require regional transmission expansion and simplified interconnection rules that support the realities of society’s policy goals and a 90% by 2035 clean energy standard.

FERC
Require regional Planning Authorities to develop compatible models (incorporating state energy resource plans) and pursue transmission where benefits exceed costs. Require states denying a regionally beneficial line to demonstrate certain criteria are met to justify denial.

FERC
Require regional transmission planning bodies created under FERC Order 1000 to propose to FERC multi-value transmission projects, accounting for state and federal clean energy policies, with Federal authority to promulgate a cost allocation methodology where regions fail to act.

They also want to "extend federal clean energy investment and production tax credits and conversion to more liquid incentives, and extend these incentives to battery storage."  In other words, forget the tax credits, these fellas now want cold, hard cash for generating energy that nobody wants.
Wait... I thought this was about recovering from the Corona Crisis?  This isn't about Corona at all.  It's a renewable energy and transmission lobbyist's wish list to make a whole bunch of money.  Never let a good crisis go to waste!

Be careful in the voting booth this November if you don't want electricity to become a luxury that you can no longer afford.
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Invenergy Sues U.S. Government After Being Denied Handouts and Loses

5/30/2020

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Ut-oh, Invenergy!  The U.S. Court of Appeals recently upheld a lower court's ruling that not only is Invenergy not entitled to grant money it did not receive, it also must refund money it did receive under Sec. 1603 Grants, and pay the government's costs related to its unsuccessful suit.

You can read the court's opinion here.

In the smallest nutshell I can manage, Invenergy built a couple of wind farms and applied under Sec. 1603 to receive a grant of 30% of its costs to build the wind farms, in lieu of taking the Production Tax Credit.  Keep in mind that this is YOUR tax money the government was doling out under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009. 

The bigger Invenergy's cost to build the wind farm, the higher its 1603 grant.  One subsidiary of Invenergy charged the subsidiaries building the wind farms a "development fee."  For one farm, it was $50M.  For the other it was $60M.  This "development fee" was added to the total cost of the wind farm.  Well, the government decided Invenergy was not entitled to a grant for the full 30% of the development fee and paid it a lesser amount.  Invenergy decided to sue the U.S. Government to collect the entire grant it felt it was due.

Except those "development fees" didn't smell right to the court.  The fees were added on after the development was finished, and the fees were very non-descriptive and didn't detail the services Invenergy performed before they performed them.  It's like Invenergy performed the services and then after the fact came up with a nicely round number of how much those services cost.

To add further funk, the "development fees" were a sham transaction, according to the courts.  The amount of the development fees made a circular trip through Invenergy affiliate bank accounts in one day, and ended up back where it started.  Did money really change hands?  Or was it just transferred around to make it look like it changed hands?  Did the affiliates really PAY Invenergy those development fees, when Invenergy gave them the money to pay the fees with?  Invenergy to affilate and then back to Invenergy.  The affiliate paid nothing, but the cost of those payments were added to the cost of the wind farm and the amount of grant Invenergy thought it was due.

The court did not believe the "development fees" were real and therefore Invenergy was not due to receive 30% of them back.  Let's see... 30% of $110M is $33M.  Invenergy wanted $33M of your tax dollars for creating an after the fact "development fee" and transferring money around in a circle.

For its trouble, Invenergy has to give back the rest of the money it wasn't entitled to, and pay the government's costs to participate in Invenergy's legal temper tantrum. I can't figure out why the government initially paid them a percentage of this money in the first place, but Invenergy should have taken their ill-gotten gold and high tailed it in the first instance.  Instead, Invenergy decided to make a fuss and demand the full amount.

What an entitled corporation!  Someone's been feeding at the government teat way too long.  I wish our government would quit handing our tax money out to Invenergy.  And if Invenergy would treat our government like this, how do you suppose they're going to treat YOU?

Lesson:  Never bite the hand that feeds you.


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URGENT transmission EMERGENCY!

5/6/2020

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The American Manufacturers (industrial consumers) had the nerve to ask FERC to extend the comment date for its NOPR on transmission incentives to 60 days after the national emergency is over, or Oct. 1, whichever comes first.  The American Public Power Association and a transmission users group supported the extension.

Investor Owned Utility front man Edison Electric Institute objected because delaying the comment deadline could eventually cause the economy to fail to recover and the lights to go out.  WIRES, transmission's trade group, agrees.  Just adding a couple months onto the time frame of instituting more profitable incentives creates an URGENT transmission EMERGENCY!

Here's your soundtrack for this post.  Turn it on.  Volume up!
You're not shy, you get around
You wanna fly, don't want your feet on the ground
You stay up, you won't come down
You wanna live, you wanna move to the sound
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Got fire in your veins
Burnin' hot but you don't feel the pain
Your desire is insane
You can't stop until you do it again
Picture
But sometimes I wonder as I look in your eyes
Maybe you're thinking of some other guy
But I know, yes I know, how to treat you right
That's why you call me in the middle of the night
Picture
You say it's urgent
So urgent, so oh oh urgent
Just wait and see
How urgent my love can be
It's urgent
Picture
You play tricks on my mind
You're everywhere but you're so hard to find
You're not warm or sentimental
You're so extreme, you can be so temperamental
Picture
But I'm not looking for a love that will last
I know what I need and I need it fast
Yeah, there's one thing in common that we both share
That's a need for for each other anytime, anywhere
Picture
It gets so urgent
So urgent
You know it's urgent
I wanna tell you it's the same for me
So oh oh urgent
Just you wait and see
How urgent our love can be
It's urgent
Picture
You say it's urgent
Make it fast, make it urgent
Do it quick, do it urgent
Gotta rush, make it urgent
Picture
Want it quick
Urgent, urgent, emergency
Urgent, urgent, emergency
Urgent, urgent, emergency
Urgent, urgent, emergency
So urgent, emergency
Emer emer emer
It's urgent
Picture
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The Biggest Transmission Lies Renewable Energy Tells Itself

4/11/2020

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Renewable energy writers are also suffering from Covid Ennui, if this transmission wish list is any indication.  The article profiles seven possible transmission projects "for renewables" and posits that if any of them are built it could "unlock a renewable energy bounty." 

Unlikely, and here's why.  The article is based on a foundation of stale lies the renewable energy industry continues to peddle.
  • ... big U.S. transmission projects seeking to carry wind and solar power from where it’s most cost-effectively generated to where it’s needed the most.
Where it's needed the most?  Where is that, exactly?  Who "needs" renewable energy the most?  And why is this renewable energy not generated near "need"?  It's no longer true (if it ever was) that most renewable energy is generated far from load.  The places "where it's needed most" all seem to be dense population centers on both coasts.  And guess what?  These places on the east coast are going gung-ho on building offshore wind and transmission to connect it.  This generation can be built within 12 miles of the cities "where it's needed most," although most of them are proposing to put it at least 30 miles offshore so they don't have to look at the generators.  The biggest battle seems to be connecting it at the shoreline.  Does it even make sense to avoid that battle in favor of new transmission from the west, thousands of miles long?  No, it does not.  New transmission to ship renewable generation to the east coast no longer makes sense, and furthermore, the ones "who need it most" aren't buying it.  Giant transmission lines from the Midwest are pretty much dead.

But, but, but...
  • The case for new multistate transmission lines has never been clearer. A growing number of states and utilities have set 100-percent-clean-energy goals, albeit with no obvious path to generating all that power close to home. The gap is growing between the transmission network’s capacity and the need to link wind farms in the Great Plains and Intermountain West, solar farms in the Southwest and hydropower resources in eastern Canada to other regions hungry for carbon-free energy.  
Some states that have set renewable energy targets actually have no idea where their "clean" energy is going to come from?  Isn't that a rather naive notion?  These states are not setting targets and then sitting back to wait for the energy industry to find ways to deliver it to them.  It is the energy industry that is eagerly proposing that these states get their renewable energy targets met with new generators in other regions and new long-distance transmission lines.  The states actually do have plans to make their goals happen, and they don't rely on passive sloth while the energy industry finds ways to meet the goals.  The energy industry is eager to provide these states with renewables from other regions using new transmission lines because that's how the industry makes money.  The industry figures if they can only make these states captive consumers of renewables from other regions that they can reap huge profits.  That's the only "need" and it's actually just greed.  There is no "need" to link wind farms in the Great Plains to "regions hungry for carbon-free energy."  These hungry regions actually aren't that hungry.  They brought their own lunch to the picnic.  The "hungry" regions want to develop their own renewables and the economic boost that comes from them, not send all their energy dollars to some other region.  They may be hungry, but they're not starving.
  • Transmission projects can be derailed at many points in their decade-long timeframes from conception to completion. Failure to gain regulatory approval from every state they cross, public opposition from environmental groups and communities worried about their negative impacts, or the refusal of any landowner along their path to cooperate are ever-present risks and have led to several high-profile project failures.
Wait a minute here... you actually think that one objecting landowner can derail an entire transmission project?  You make it seem like new transmission easements are voluntary on the part of landowners.  Are you truly unaware that transmission developers have proposed using eminent domain to acquire easements for multi-region projects that benefit other regions?  I'm not sure who you think believes this lie.  Also the idea that environmental groups oppose transmission "for renewables" is ludicrous.  Environmental groups love new transmission "for renewables".  They only oppose transmission for energy sources they don't like.  It's about the energy sources, not the transmission.

The real reason big transmission "for renewables" has failed is because these purportedly "hungry" regions don't want to buy the generation.  Transmission for renewables doesn't have customers.  Utilities have not signed up for service on new merchant transmission proposals.  This is the reason Clean Line failed.  It had no customers.  And even though they sold off their projects, the projects will still fail because they have no customers (looking at you, Grain Belt Express).

And then the article purports that there are at least 7 projects still "moving ahead."  My take on this list is that maybe only 3 of these 7 projects have any chance of actually happening.  The viable ones?  They're buried on existing rights of way.... SOO Green, The New England Clean Power Link, and the Champlain Hudson Power Express.  But buried projects are more expensive, and that may price them out of the game when a hungry region can build its own renewables at a competitive price.

What is renewable, "clean" energy worth to the hungry, anyhow?  Do they only want to be "clean" when they can foist the cost of their cleanliness onto other regions?  Is there a price point where a hungry region decides to just be dirty instead?  Instead you've got energy companies competing to be the cheapest option, and they're cutting costs by building cheaper generation in other regions and using eminent domain to acquire easements for new overhead transmission.  It's not that this energy is any cheaper, it's just that someone else is paying its true cost.  Overhead transmission on new rights of way is the hardest transmission to build because it receives the most opposition.  Opposition is costly in both time and money.  Transmission with opposition can linger for years before being cancelled, and the longer it lingers, the more likely it will be cancelled.  Successfully building transmission after decades of opposition is a myth from a history book.  It's not going to happen in this decade.

When is the renewable energy industry going to quit fighting to build what they want, and start building what the customers want?  Maybe right after they quit lying to themselves.  Hungry regions want to build their own renewables.  The only long-distance transmission that's viable is buried on existing rights of way.  Renewables need to be priced at their true cost.
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PATH Zombie Using Your Money to Fund Appeal at DC Circuit Court

3/31/2020

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Three things are certain in life... death, taxes, and PATH continuing to cost ratepayers money.
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Last week, PATH filed an appeal of FERC Opinion No. 554-A at the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.  In this new battle, PATH asks a court to give it the last few things that FERC denied.  Why not?  After all, ratepayers are still picking up the tab for all PATH's legal fees and court costs.

Did you think PATH was over in 2011?  Or maybe 2012?  It wasn't.  There's still a charge in your electric bill every month to pay to keep the zombie alive so it can keep trying to collect even more money from ratepayers.

We got really close to closing the ratepayer ATM For Zombie Projects once, but FERC recently decided to keep it running for a while longer.  And this is how they get repaid for their generosity with our money.

PATH bites.

Ratepayers pay.

And pay.

And pay.

And pay.

And pay.

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FERC Proposes New and Increased Transmission Incentives

3/27/2020

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Well, hey, just what we need during an economic crisis, right?  Let's increase the electric bills consumers pay in order to enrich the utilities!  I'm thinking that utilities are going to emerge from this clusterferc as better investments than ever.  Where else could you get a double digit, guaranteed return on your investment during a recession?  Maybe FERC's timing is just a bit off, but that's not going to stop the utilities from bellying up to the consumer money bar and gorging themselves comatose.

I note that in its recently issued Rulemaking FERC fails to provide any evidence that transmission incentives are needed.  They just think they are.
While transmission infrastructure development has remained generally robust at an aggregate level, the types of transmission projects that are needed, and the use of rate treatments to incent them, must evolve to reflect the changes in market fundamentals.
This is garbage, plain and simple.  Where's the proof that transmission needs incentives to attract investors?  There is none.  However, FERC feels it is mandated to provide incentives by Sec. 219 of the FPA.
FPA section 219(a) requires that the Commission provide incentive-based rates for
electric transmission for the purpose of benefitting consumers by ensuring reliability and reducing the cost of delivered power by reducing transmission congestion. While we are encouraged by the investment in transmission infrastructure to date, our evaluation of the Commission’s incentives policy indicates that additional reform may be necessary to continue to satisfy our obligations under FPA section 219 in this new transmission planning landscape.
Well, hey there, we should all be happy that FERC can finally read the statute correctly (reliability AND reduced costs).  Except they forgot how to read a couple sections down from this one.

So, FERC is going to "benefit" consumers with its new take on transmission incentives.  It's going to toss out its current "risks and challenges" test and replace it with a consumer benefits test.  This test is going to consist of comparing a proposed transmission project's cost/benefit ratio to a "national average" of transmission project cost/benefit ratios that is compiled by hunting through regional transmission organization transmission plans to harvest the ones with a cost/benefit ratio that fits into the scenario FERC (or maybe it's the transmission owner?) wants to create.  Here's an example.
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First they will separate transmission into greater or less than $25M.  Any project that hits the 75th percentile of the average benefit-cost ratio will receive a 50 bonus point ROE adder.  Any project that hits the 90th percentile after the project is completed is entitled to add another 50 points.  This whole thing is floating on top of the "average" benefit cost ratios that someone is going to create.  It's not really clear who is going to create these, and how much bias is going to go into the creation.  For example, the transmission projects selected for the PJM Region seem to use the ones with the highest ratios.  While rebuilds associated with the Transource IEC project made it into the equation, the IEC itself was not used to create the data.  With picking and choosing like this, benefit thresholds are as flimsy as wiping your hands on your pants to prevent infection.

What if a project is awarded that initial 50 points, but in the completed construction phase its ratio falls below the 75th percentile?  Should its incentive be cancelled?  Well, of course not.  I don't see that proposed.  It's all about handing out consumer cash for "estimated" benefits.

Next FERC proposes a "reliability benefit" incentive of an additional 50 points.  Somehow FERC's reading of Sec. 219 to provide reliability AND reduced rates gets forgotten here.  FERC proposes to award bonus points for "reliability" enhancements that go above and beyond NERC standards.  NERC's job is to ensure the transmission system remains reliable.  FERC's job is to regulate transmission rates.  But suddenly FERC thinks it knows more about reliability than NERC does and is in a position to decide which NERC standards need to be gold-plated.  Hogwash.  It's just a handout.  It doesn't benefit consumers.

The next part is just plain funny (and expensive).  All rates must be just and reasonable.  FERC has established a "zone of reasonableness" standard for transmission ROEs in order to ensure they are reasonable.  The current incentives scheme caps incentive bonus points at the top of the zone of reasonableness.  That is a utility's ROE, inclusive of incentive bonus points, cannot exceed the top of the zone.  Now FERC wants to toss that out in favor of a flat 250 bonus point cap.  So, even if a utility's base ROE is already near the top of the zone, it can still add 250 bonus points and exceed the zone of reasonableness.  And still be "reasonable."  Uh huh.  Right.  Transmission incentives don't have to be reasonable.  They're something else entirely.  Except Sec. 219 says they must be reasonable.  FERC's approach here makes no sense.

Non-ROE incentives are proposed to remain basically the same, except the abandonment incentive (if awarded) will become retroactive to the date an RTO approved the transmission project.  This closes the current gap between RTO project approval and Commission abandonment approval where the utility may have to *gasp* spend its own money!  I thought incentives were supposed to benefit consumers?  What happened to all that happy stuff about Sec. 219's purpose?  There is no "benefit" to consumers who pay for RTO mistakes such as transmission ideas that are never actually built.  There is no benefit here.

FERC tosses the transco incentive.  Good enough.

However, FERC proposes to INCREASE the RTO membership incentive from 50 bonus points to 100 bonus points added to a utility's ROE.  Ya know, based on the prior comment period that lead up to this rulemaking, I could have sworn that the case was made that the RTO membership incentive should be phased out.  Looks like FERC just ignored all of those comments and did what it wanted to do from the beginning, which was to increase this incentive.  Sec. 219 requires FERC to “provide for incentives to each transmitting utility or electric utility that joins a Transmission Organization.”  It does not specify the form of the incentive... it could just as easily be a little, plastic participation trophy as ROE bonus points.  There's also the issue about whether Congress meant to reward utilities who joined an RTO or continually reward them for remaining as members.  This whole thing is a joke.  What if states began a mass exodus from RTOs in order to avoid the consumer burden of this increased incentive?  Who would pay it?  Could utilities still charge consumers for their RTO membership if the consumers were no longer members?  And how likely may a state be to approve new transmission projects for a company with a huge incentive cost?  If they don't approve the transmission project to be built, the incentives mean absolutely nothing.  (Hey, maybe that's why there was that risks and challenges test?)  I'm thinking we may find the answers to these questions once FERC just goes merrily on its way of making new transmission incentives rules and ignoring all the comments it receives about better ideas.

FERC also proposes an incentive of 100 bonus points on the costs of "transmission technologies" as well as allowing the cost of operating them to be a regulatory asset for 5 years (to earn a return on the operating costs).  Transmission technologies improve the operation of existing transmission assets without building entirely new transmission lines.  We should be doing more of this and less building of new transmission on new rights of way.  But what does FERC care?  They're giving utilities full cost recovery + return for whatever transmission projects they want to try to build.  It doesn't matter whether they ever get built or not.... and I'm thinking NOT.  It's harder than ever to build new greenfield transmission.  It might be a better use of consumer funds (ya know, "benefit" consumers) to improve the existing transmission system before building new lines.

So, that's the basics.  It's an awful wolf dressed in "consumer benefits" clothing.  It does nothing but increase costs for consumers who pay transmission rates.  Just another giveaway to the utilities by the ones who are supposed to be protecting us from utility greed.

If you want to bang your head against the wall writing comments that nobody at FERC will read, please participate in this rulemaking.  Otherwise, just stand back and open your wallet.  Choices, choices.
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Gimme cash!  I need to buy straws!

3/26/2020

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Who's missing the good old days of individually wrapped, single-use plastic drinking straws being handed out at restaurants now?  Would you really put your lips on a restaurant cup handed through the drive-in window right now?  But... straws are destroying the planet!  We must outlaw straws!  Seems like we've replaced the climate crisis with the COVID crisis.  A real-time threat instead of a dire prediction.  And maybe all the climate change hysteria has been shoved to the back of the rack right now in favor of dealing with the actual threat we're all living with.

Except all the "clean energy now" folks are still trying to push their agenda while holed up in their urban paradise.  Everyone has probably heard something related to an effort to include financial incentives for wind and solar in federal economic relief packages.  That's kind of like worrying about your single-use plastic straw destroying the planet when a pandemic is killing thousands.

Depending on your political persuasion, you may think the attempt to shove environmental wish lists into federal relief packages isn't happening.  But it is.

Here's a "wish list" for the American Wind Energy Association.  AWEA sent a letter to Congress urging them to provide "relief" to the renewable energy sector.  As if they're not part of the corporate world already included in relief packages?  For some reason they need special, additional relief.

While this whole economic crisis was winding up, so was my anxiety over how we'd ever pay for it all.  Maybe we need to cut some pork.  The billions of taxpayer dollars handed out each year to big wind and big solar in the form of renewable energy tax credits seems like a good place to start.  After all, this industry has claimed that it is competitive in energy markets without any subsidy.  Isn't it about time to make them put OUR money where their mouth is?

Perhaps the most disturbing "want" by AWEA is "the ability to receive direct payments for or refundability of our tax credits would keep our current pipeline of projects moving forward."  In other words, big wind doesn't even want tax credits anymore because their ability to monitize them by selling them to other corporations has been hit hard by the economy.  Instead, big wind and solar corporations simply want the cash.  Instead of a credit on the taxes they may pay, they want the government to just hand them cash because they're unlikely to pay enough taxes to cover the credits they're earning.

How come I'm not allowed to sell my own tax credits to other taxpayers?  Oh, that we all could receive a payment from the government instead of credits to our tax burden!  Forget all those write-offs I'm allowed on my tax return, just give me cash instead!    Except I never get more write-offs than I can use.  Big wind does.  Maybe we shouldn't lose sight of that fact.  It's not a mere tax credit, it's a source of income.

So, maybe big wind's wish list didn't make it into the most recent economic relief package.  There will be more relief to come, and that's where they're focusing right now.  As more relief comes, it's going to start to look more like corporate Christmas and less like actual relief for the American people who need it.

Keep your eyes on this one.  Greed knows no bounds.

Meanwhile, use a straw, folks.  Go ahead, live large!  I must admit I've been stockpiling them and carrying them around for more than a year.  Have you ever seen how they "wash" bar glasses?  Even before COVID-19 I wasn't a fan of sharing germs on poorly washed, reusable restaurant ware.  And now I've got nowhere to use my stockpile of straws because I'm certainly not eating any food prepared by someone else.  No straws needed!

Yes, this too shall pass, and eventually I can enjoy a meal out again.  I have straws at the ready.  But will I ever look at the "climate crisis" as a real, imminent threat again?  Probably not.  The dangers of climate change have paled in comparison to the present threat.  And that presents a problem to the renewable energy industry, whose power to scare or shame people into submission has paled as well.

Perceptions have changed.  The money buffet may just be closed forever.

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The REAL End For The PATH Project Finally Arrives

1/17/2020

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I first heard about the PATH Transmission project in the summer of 2008.  It was a horrible, unneeded idea that eventually met its fate, shelved in 2011 and cancelled for good in 2012.  Many considered that the end of the PATH project.

But it wasn't.  A formal complaint about PATH's rates had been filed at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in January, 2011.  I chose to stick with that complaint, even when PATH was no longer a threat.  It's been a lot of work over the past nine years, coming in fits and starts. 

We prevailed on our complaint, and PATH was ordered in 2017 to refund more than seven million dollars, plus interest and undue return it had collected for its extensive public relations campaign and lobbying carried out for the purpose of influencing the decisions of public officials considering the project's applications.  The correct precedent was set, and utilities under FERC's rate setting jurisdiction may no longer collect these kinds of costs from ratepayers.

Done!

But, not really.  Several more orders were issued since then, correcting PATH's refund filings.  Even though ratepayers officially paid off all the PATH debt in 2017, PATH has still managed to collect several million dollars a year from ratepayers while it bumbled its way through the FERC Orders and made required compliance filings.  I continued to keep an eye on what was transpiring.  Sometimes the kids get out of control if they don't have a babysitter.

The twice-yearly rate filing phone meetings and data requests continued.  And how much fun were those?  Not much fun at all.  I'm seriously over it.  Twelve years after PATH began collecting its costs through rate filings at FERC, it's time to put this thing to bed.  For good!  We've all got other things to do.

So, is it January again?  It seems like a lot of the PATH things happen at FERC in January.  New year, out with the old.  Yesterday, FERC issued its agenda for its January, 2020, public meeting.  PATH is on it.  All of the open PATH matters are on it.  They'll be settled one way or the other next Thursday.

Nobody knows what to expect until the order is issued.  But the fact that it ended up, once again, on a monthly meeting agenda indicates that the Commission sees some value in making this order more visible.  The Commission issues orders every day, but only a handful are significant enough to end up on the monthly agenda, delivered before an audience in Hearing Room 1.

I can't wait!  No matter what happens, I'm am truly thrilled to put PATH behind me, for good!

FERC gets a lot of rancor from the public and the industries it regulates.  But, in this instance, FERC has done an outstanding job sorting through everything and meting out justice.  The FERC employees I interacted with during this case have been fair, considerate, and dedicated.  I had a great experience at FERC.  I have faith that FERC works for for the citizens it serves.

Twelve years... the lingering life of a transmission proposal that was concocted in haste... and repented at leisure.  The ratepayer gravy train will now finally grind to a halt.
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Are Missouri Municipalities Helping Or Hurting Electric Customers By Clinging To Grain Belt Express?

1/16/2020

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More good news yesterday!  Representative Jim Hansen's bill to remove eminent domain authority from merchant transmission projects passed out of the Missouri House Rules Committee by a large margin.  It's headed to the floor for a vote, possibly as early as next week!  Be on the lookout for opportunities to support this much-needed legislation!

Also yesterday, the Senate companion bill sponsored by Senator Brown had a hearing in the Senate Commerce, Consumer Protection, Energy & Environment Committee.  This hearing was much more contentious, and the outcome is uncertain.

The handful of Missouri municipalities who remain incomprehensibly wedded to GBE showed up to blather against the bill.  Ahead of that, these folks did some kind of joint press release that resulted in a string of  substantially similar news articles that were full of pie-in-the-sky thinking and misinformation.

Let's take a look at one of them... the one from the City of Chillicothe.

These stories all contain claims of savings for municipal electric customers, Chillicothe's claimed share being $425,000 annually, spread over 9,600 customers (do the math - it's $3.69 per month, rounded).  That figure was taken from the more general $12.8 million annual savings for all municipalities participating in this game of Russian Roulette.  Except that number is historic and probably not all that applicable right now.

The $12.8M figure came out of MO PSC testimony and was calculated years ago based on GBE replacing a contract with Prairie State that is set to expire by 2021.  Prairie State was an inordinately expensive contract entered into by the municipalities years ago.  It was a bad deal, and it's cost municipal electricity customers millions in increased costs ever since.  It was probably not a smart contract to sign in the first place.

How smart are these municipalities when it comes to energy contracts?  How much do they consider the economic impacts on the customers they serve when making contract decisions?  The history here isn't very good.

Here's the thing... Prairie State will need to be replaced very soon.  What have the municipalities done to accomplish that?  Are they sitting around waiting for GBE to replace it?  That's not going to happen.  GBE won't be completed for years, if ever, so what are these customers supposed to do for energy in the mean time?  Are the municipalities entering into higher-priced, short-term contracts to fill the gap, while betting that GBE will come through to lower costs at some point?  Seems like an awful lot of money wasted now for something that is unlikely to ever happen.  If the municipalities were smart, they would have been looking for the cheapest, long-term contract they could find to replace Prairie State now.  This would be in the best interests of the ratepayers.

Signing a higher priced contract with an exit clause for the municipalities to escape in the future if GBE comes on line comes at a huge price to municipal electric customers.  So would signing a short term contract based on guessing when GBE might be available.

These municipalities should be concerned with only one objective... to provide reliable, cost effective electricity for their customers at all times.  Instead, they're hoping for two birds in a bush to replace the one in their hand.  They continue to fixate on GBE and ignore the present needs of their customers.

GBE offered municipalities in Missouri service on its proposed transmission line at a below cost rate in order to coerce them to sign a contract that was used by GBE to create the illusion of "need" for its project.  It was a gift, but it was a gift with strings attached.  The strings require the municipalities to forego cheaper replacement contracts in favor of the GBE gift happening in the future.  In order to create the illusion of "savings," GBE was compared to the municipalities most expensive electric contract, Prairie State.  At the time, its expiration was at least 5 years in the future, so it seemed a safe bet.  However, GBE has made little to no progress in that 5 year time period.  Prairie State has to be replaced before GBE could ever be built, using the most optimistic view possible.  This means that the municipal savings are actually shrinking, unless the municipalities went out and found an equally expensive contract to replace Prairie State, just to preserve the savings illusion.  Who pays the price for this kind of wishful thinking?  The municipal electric customers!  The municipalities aren't acting in the best interests of their customers, and they're probably using old data to make outrageous "savings" claims.

Contracting for electricity is part price comparison, and part risk evaluation.  Different contracts come with different prices, time frames, and risks.  A cheap contract may lock the customer into a longer term, and it may come with a lot of risk.  Another contract may be a bit more expensive, but with a shorter term, and a lower risk profile.  All of this must be balanced when contracting decisions are made.  It's not all about the price.

What's risk?  Risk is that the resource might not be able to deliver as scheduled.  GBE is a prime example of this.  In exchange for a very attractive price, the contract is long term, and about as risky as it comes.  If the resource can't deliver, the contract holder is left scrambling to find a replacement resource on a very short time frame.  These kind of resources are going to be more expensive, due to their short term, "just in time" nature.  This is what the municipalities will be facing when GBE doesn't deliver.

Why won't it deliver in time?
CMU General Manager Jim Gillilan said local customers would notice a reduction in their bills after the transmission line is built, which he expected to be in 2022.
Where did he get his expectation?  Certainly not from GBE, whose latest claim was that it hoped the project could be ready by 2023 or 2024.  That's a full two years after Chillicothe expects.  Where's Chillicothe's power going to come from during those two years?

My estimate is that GBE is even further down the road.  Here's why:

  1. GBE doesn't have enough customers to make the project economic.  It only has 2 customers at last count, one of them being the municipalities that are getting service below GBE's cost.  That means that GBE needs to find other customers who are willing to pay more than their share to cover the municipalities' discount.  GBE hasn't found enough customers to make it feasible in more than 10 years.  I don't see it happening any time soon.
  2. GBE does not have a permit in Illinois.  It has to reapply from the beginning, a process that would take at least 18 months (and they haven't even applied yet -- tick, tock!).  Assuming that goes beautifully for GBE (which it won't) any possible permit will certainly spend time in the courts, just like the last one that was vacated.  Based on the Illinois Supreme Court opinions on both GBE and RICL, this looks a little dicey for GBE.
  3. GBE must receive the assent of all eight Missouri counties through which it is proposed to pass.  The counties have been resistant and seem unlikely to assent any time soon.
All of these are HUGE roadblocks that make GBE's risk profile really shaky.  Having a risky profile drives customers away, hence GBE's lack of customers is a self-propelled ride to failure.

It's not happening in 2022.  It's highly unlikely to happen in 2023 or 2024.  And the longer it sits, the worse it smells to potential customers.  And we've yet to figure in time to actually build the project, assuming it's fully approved and finds customers.  How long do you suppose it may take to construct?  We're talking years, it's a very ambitious project.

So, when the municipalities continue to champion GBE, you might want to ask them why.  What contract does it expect GBE to replace?  What's the price of that contract compared to GBE?  When does that contract expire?  What if GBE isn't ready by the time that contract expires?  What contracts are waiting in the wings to fill the gap?

Is this really about saving municipal customers any money at this point, or is it more about politics and stubborn resentment?  After all, those birds flew out of the municipalities bush a long time ago.  Pretending they're still there for the taking is a fool's game. 

The municipalities need to take a step back and ask themselves if this continued hope for GBE is really in the best interests of their customers... before the customers themselves start asking this question.
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The Swamp's Energy Circus

1/12/2020

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Holy Swamp Circus, Batman!  The House Energy & Commerce Committee is working on a "CLEAN Future Act" that renewable energy industry group ACORE says is based on a report it recently released.

And what in ACORE's report?  This

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I'll sum it up for you in as few words as possible.
  1. Require every state to set a renewable energy standard under federal law.  This will require states to pay increased prices for renewables, even if they are more expensive than conventional sources of energy.
  2. Provide new, perpetual federal tax credits to renewable energy, so it can appear to be "cheaper."
  3. Charge federal penalties to sources of energy that contain "carbon" so that these sources of energy become more expensive than the expensive renewable sources.
  4. Supersize the electric transmission network to provide free transportation for more renewable energy.
Of course, the devil is in the details.  One huge detail conveniently left out of this report is HOW MUCH WOULD THIS COST?  All of ACORE's great ideas come at a huge cost to electric consumers, you and me!  None of this stuff is free or cheap, in fact, it's going to cost us trillions if implemented.

But, the climate, the planet, civilization, for goodness sake!  Oh, the humanity!

How much good would this plan actually do?  ACORE's basis for this is full of holes.
The U.S. accounts for 15% of the world’s total GHG emissions, making it the world’s second largest emitter.
Only 28% of U.S. GHG emissions are attributable to the electricity sector.

Today, 22% of America’s 1,047.6 gigawatt (GW) utility
-scale, electric generation capacity is renewable, while 67% of our electrical capacity produces GHG emissions. In 2050, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that 60% of the generation mix will still produce GHG emissions. Replacing this projected emitting capacity with pollution-free renewable power will require nearly 30 GW of additional renewable capacity each year between 2020 and 2050, a roughly 50% increase above the current growth rate of U.S. renewables.
So, let's see... spending trillions on decarbonizing the electricity sector would result in a 28% reduction to 15% of GHG emissions.  Do you know how small a number that is?  ACORE is also talking about CAPACITY FACTORS.  A generator's nameplate capacity is the amount of energy it could produce if it ran at maximum capacity all the time.  The capacity factor is the actual energy produced, because generators don't run all the time.  The capacity factor of a generator with a continual supply of fuel allowing it to run at maximum capacity at any time is pretty high.  Renewable generators, such as wind and solar, on the other hand, have miniscule capacity factors because they cannot be counted on to run at their nameplate capacity at any time because their fuel supply is variable.  Therefore, in order to produce the kind of capacity factor ACORE is talking about using wind and solar, we'd have to build ten times as much generation.  How cost effective is it to build 10 times the generation you actually need just so you can get a 10% capacity factor out of a renewable generator? I'm really not convinced here.

But wait... there's more!

About those new, permanent tax credits for renewables:
Qualifying technologies should include all current and future resources that meet emissions criteria, including enabling technologies like energy storage and expanded interstate, high-voltage transmission that accesses clean energy resources.
The tax credit recommended in the report is: 
The electricity title of the Clean Energy for America Act (S. 1288) would provide a minimum credit to any clean electricity facility that is at least 35 percent cleaner than the national average, with zero-emissions facilities receiving a production tax credit of up to 2.4 cents per kWh or an investment tax credit of up to 30%, at the election of the taxpayer. The PTC would be available for ten years after the facility is placed in service, and the credit in its entirety would phase out when emissions from the electricity sector fall to 50% below 2019 levels. Additionally, the Clean Energy for America Act would repeal a range of existing preferential incentives for fossil fuel companies, including the expensing of intangible drilling costs, percentage depletion, deductions for tertiary injectants, and credits for enhanced oil recovery and marginal oil wells.

So, 2.4 cents tax credit per kwh  generated for qualifying sources.  And how is that going to be applied to electric transmission?  First of all, there is no such thing as "clean" electrons.  All electrons look the same and get all mixed up in the transmission network, so there is no way to judge whether the electricity on a transmission line is 35 percent cleaner than the national average.  What's the national average of the cleanliness of electricity?  Second of all, how would this be measured?  Measuring the generation of electrons to calculate a production tax credit is simple.  They are measured as they are created.  Once they are transferred to our current AC electric transmission network, they get all mixed up with other electrons and nobody can tell where they go.  Complicating this, a lot of electrons are simply lost along the way.  Is it the clean ones?  Or the dirty ones?  If you measure how many "clean" electrons you add to the transmission system, then you're overestimating because some are lost.  But you can't measure them at the receiving end because they're all mixed up (and some just go around in a circle forever and nobody ever uses them).  Ya know what?  A production tax credit (or investment tax credit) for electric transmission is about the most imprecise and stupid thing I've ever heard.  It can't work.  They'd just be guessing at how much to pay these transmission owners.

And here's the big thing... tax credits for generators and transmission owners mean they pay less taxes.  If they pay less taxes, WE pay MORE taxes to make up the difference.  So it's not like these "credits" actually make the energy any cheaper, we just pay for the energy in our tax bill instead of our electric bill.  The end game here is that electricity will get even MORE expensive.

And just to make sure renewables appear to be "cheaper", let's remove any existing credits for conventional generation, and then add "carbon" penalties to them.

But all this pretend "cheapness" might end up being more expensive for "the poor."  Oh, look, it's Renewable Robin Hood!
Since energy is an unavoidable expense, putting a price on carbon could also, at least initially, have a disparate impact on lower-income households. To prevent that outcome, any equitable carbon pricing program should be designed to avoid economic regressivity. One possible solution is to return revenue from carbon pricing to citizens in the form of a pro-rata carbon “dividend.”
Let's tax the hell out of carbon and make energy really expensive, and distribute that tax revenue to "the poor" so that they can have cheap energy.  Rob from the rich, and give to the poor (because "the poor" have lots of votes!!)

And then let's bring back the NIETCs that big green accidentally killed in 2011 when they were being used to justify new transmission for fossil fuels, except now we'll use them to usurp state authority to site new transmission for our wondrous "clean" energy transmission.
Additionally, Congress should clarify federal backstop siting authority by restoring Congressional intent of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which would encourage and accelerate investment and development of needed transmission infrastructure when that infrastructure is in the national interest and advances the objectives of a comprehensive climate plan.
National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors (NIETCs) were established in 2005.  Essentially, the U.S. DOE can designate these corridors through studies that identify transmission constraints.  Once a corridor is designated, backstop siting and permitting authority shifts to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the event that a state cannot approve a transmission project within one of these corridors.  They tried to do it right after the legislation passed, but the effort failed in the courts.  Ironically, it was the big environmental groups that fought NIETCs in the courts to have them vacated and the backstop permitting authority neutralized.  All a state has to do is simply deny a permit and that nullifies FERC authority.  But now ACORE wants Congress to re-vamp this idea with the requirement that NIETCs facilitate transmission for "clean" energy.

Guess what?  NIETCs didn't work the first time.  They won't work this time, either.  Transmission siting and permitting is state jurisdictional, and that's never going to change.  There's simply nothing ACORE or Congress can do to usurp state authority over transmission.

This report is a swamp clown horror show!  It will make electricity so expensive that we can't afford it.  Well, if we sit in the dark, I guess that will take care of a very, very small percentage of carbon emissions.

We can't afford the "CLEAN Future Act" and we can't afford ACORE's pie-in-the-sky recommendations.  Where's Batman when you need him?
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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